What to Slap in Northwest Caliban Gorge

Northwest Caliban Gorge contains Mora Tecta (Fair Skies, 22-0) and Lancetfish (Fisher's Intuition; Fair Skies → Clouds, 0-2).

This hole contains a third fish with a weather condition, Hoodwinker (Fair Skies), and two fish that are always available but require Snagging (Sycorax, Sweetmeat Mussel) as well as a Timeworn Map which also requires Snagging. As such, aggregated data for this fishing hole is particularly problematic.

The conclusions presented herein come from data manually collected in Northwest Caliban Gorge. The following datasets were collected:

• Short Bill Minnow
  • 3000 Casts with no abilities in Fair Skies, 20-22
  • 3000 Casts with no abilities in Fair Skies, 22-0
  • 3000 Casts with Stormfish Surface Slapped in Fair Skies, 22-0
  • 3000 Casts with Caliban Surface Slapped in Fair Skies, 22-0
  • 3000 Casts with Hoodwinker Surface Slapped in Fair Skies, 22-0
• Squid Strip
  • 3000 Casts with no abilities without Fisher's Intuition in Clear Skies or Clouds
  • 3000 Casts with no abilities with Fisher's Intuition in Fair Skies → Clouds, 0-2
  • 3000 Casts with Stormfish Surface Slapped with Fisher's Intuition in Fair Skies → Clouds, 0-2
  • 3000 Casts with Caliban Surface Slapped with Fisher's Intuition in Fair Skies → Clouds, 0-2

The following tables display the data from the first bullets for each bait above: Casts with no abilities in conditions where the non-big fish fish available are identical to the ones available in Mora Tecta and Lancetfish's windows. Clear Skies and Clouds have the same fish available so are functionally the same for this purpose when fishing with Squid Strip.

Data like this is often useful enough for the goal of figuring out what to Slap because the addition of a single big fish with the bite rates of Mora Tecta or Lancetfish does not impact the distribution of the hole in such a way where the best option changes. In Northwest Caliban Gorge, however, the question of what to Slap is not just related to bite rate but also bite time, and using both of these variables to make a conclusion requires having accurate information on both so this data is not going to be referenced further. It was primarily collected because there was time to do it while collecting the rest.

Mora Tecta

All bite rate tables in this section are representative of fishing done in Fair Skies, 22-0.

When fishing for Mora Tecta you want to use Chum and have something Surface Slapped. The bite rate distributions do not change too significantly when Mora Tecta is available because of its 4.2% bite rate and the fish impacted most significantly being Seatrap, the only irrelevant fish.

Based on this data alone, Stormfish appears to be the best option and indeed Stormfish provides the largest increase to Mora Tecta's bite rate.

However, Northwest Caliban Gorge is a fishing hole where the bite time ranges of the available fish vary significantly and when factoring in the average bite time, Stormfish is a less obvious choice.

The median bite times on Short Bill Minnow when using Chum are (in seconds):

• Seatrap: 9
• Stormfish: 6.3
• Caliban: 13.9
• Hoodwinker: 10.9
• Mora Tecta: 16.7

Based upon these median bite times and the collected bite rate percentages, the average bite time (in seconds) per each scenario is:

• No Slap: 9.744
• Stormfish Slap: 12.217
• Caliban Slap: 8.487
• Hoodwinker Slap: 9.377

Adding an additional 2 seconds to account for inputs and Rest results in the following amount of Casts per window:

• No Slap: 30
• Stormfish Slap: 25
• Caliban Slap: 33
• Hoodwinker Slap: 31

Finally, Mora Tecta has a 50% escape rate, effectively turning its catch rate into half of its bite rate.

Therefore, the probability of each method resulting in at least 1 or 2 caught Mora Tecta in a 2 Eorzean hour window is as follows:

For single or double Mora Tecta, Stormfish is the highest probability option.
For double Mora Tecta, Caliban's viability increases but still remains below that of Stormfish.
Hoodwinker overall appears to be near identical to Stormfish in bite rate resulting in a near-identical affect on Mora Tecta's bite rate but it has a lower bite time than Caliban which leaves it as the worst option.

Lancetfish

All bite rate tables in this section are representative of fishing done in Fair Skies → Clouds, 0-2 with the Fisher's Intuition buff active.

As with Mora Tecta, when fishing for Lancetfish you want to use Chum and have something Surface Slapped, and the value of your options do not appear to change much when looking at the bite rates when Lancetfish is available due to its low bite rate and the high bite rates of the targets.

Based on this data alone, Stormfish appears to be the best option and indeed Stormfish provides the largest increase to Lancetfish's bite rate as well.

However, the extremes of the bite times in this hole are exemplified when fishing for Lancetfish given the overwhelming bite rate of the Slap targets and the even more overwhelming bite rate of the target you choose not to Slap.
On Squid Strip, Stormfish has an even shorter bite time than it does on Short Bill Minnow while Caliban has a longer one.

The median bite times on Squid Strip when using Chum are (in seconds):

• Seatrap: 8.9
• Stormfish: 5.95
• Caliban: 15.25
• Hoodwinker: 0
• Lancetfish: 15.25

Based upon these median bite times and the collected bite rate percentages, the average bite time (in seconds) per each scenario is:

• No Slap: 9.840
• Stormfish Slap: 13.351
• Caliban Slap: 7.128

Adding an additional 2 seconds to account for inputs and Rest results in the following amount of Casts per window:

• No Slap: 30
• Stormfish Slap: 23
• Caliban Slap: 38

Finally, Lancetfish has a 55% escape rate*, effectively turning its catch rate into 45% of its bite rate.

Therefore, the probability of each method resulting in a caught Lancetfish in a 2 Eorzean hour window is as follows:

Caliban is the highest probability option.
Stormfish increases Caliban's bite rate to a degree where the difference in Casts per window becomes significant enough to make Caliban the more favourable option due to Caliban having nearly 3x the median bite time of Stormfish. A Cast differential is present on all baits however on Squid Strip, compared to Short Bill Minnow, you lose enough Casts with Stormfish Slapped and gain enough Casts with Caliban Slapped to make the increased bite rate of Stormfish less relevant.
Stormfish is the best option per individual Cast so in a scenario where, for some reason, you have a set amount of Casts that is less than the above amounts it would be worth Slapping.

Fish Eyes

The bite rate information the calculations in this section are based on is that from the Mora Tecta section.

Fish Eyes is a 550 GP ability that gives you a 60 second buff in which you can ignore the time requirements of a fish. Fish Eyes can be used for Mora Tecta but it cannot be used for Lancetfish because it does not work on legendary fish.
You are able to use Fish Eyes 16-22 before every Mora Tecta window, in addition to any Fair Skies window.

When using Fish Eyes the probabilities change because the Cast quantity you can do per "window" is severely decreased.

The average bite times from the Mora Tecta section adjusted an additional 2 seconds to account for inputs and Rest results in the following amount of Casts per Fish Eyes window when using Chum:

• No Slap: 5.109
• Stormfish Slap: 4.220
• Caliban Slap: 5.721
• Hoodwinker Slap: 5.274

While you should be able to use Chum for the entirety of a regular Mora Tecta window, this is not always possible when using Fish Eyes.
The median bite times on Short Bill Minnow when not using Chum are (in seconds):

• Seatrap: 16.5
• Stormfish: 10.5
• Caliban: 26
• Hoodwinker: 20.25
• Mora Tecta: 35

Based upon these median bite times and the collected bite rate percentages, the average bite time (in seconds) per each scenario is:

• No Slap: 17.784
• Stormfish Slap: 23.116
• Caliban Slap: 15.320
• Hoodwinker Slap: 17.059

Adding an additional 2 seconds to account for inputs and Rest results in the following amount of Casts per Fish Eyes window when not using Chum:

• No Slap: 3.033
• Stormfish Slap: 2.389
• Caliban Slap: 3.464
• Hoodwinker Slap: 3.148

Accounting for Mora Tecta's 50% escape rate, the probability of a Fish Eyes use resulting in a caught Mora Tecta is as follows:

With Chum, Stormfish is the highest probability option.
Without Chum, Caliban is the highest probability option.
When Stormfish is Slapped, without Chum, the higher bite rate is not offset by how few Casts you are able to do in a single Fish Eyes window.

Addendum

tl;dr

During Mora Tecta's window Slap Stormfish.
During Lancetfish's window Slap Caliban.
When using Fish Eyes for Mora Tecta Slap Stormfish if using Chum and Slap Caliban if not using Chum.

Escape Rates

The stated 50% escape rate for Mora Tecta is very high confidence and is supported by aggregated data.

The stated 55% escape rate is what the collected data, in addition to miscellaneous Lancetfish catches outside of the testing conditions, resulted in. Aggregated data suggests a 47.7% escape rate for Lancetfish. Whether the escape rate is 55%, 47.7% or another number, the conclusion from the data is the same as Slapping Caliban will result in the highest number of bites. The escape rate being lower or higher would increase or decrease the chance to catch per window for all options.

"It took me x intuitions/windows to catch Lancetfish/Mora Tecta."

59% could be considered high but is far from guaranteed. Failing multiple windows in a row is not unusual or uncommon. This happened multiple times during this testing.
In order to observe rates similar to these, catch these fish a few hundred times.