Unnamed Island Spectral Current Proccing

Based on current Fair Skies data, Ragworm, Krill and Plump Worm are similar in many ways.

On all baits the highest bite rate Modest Lure favouring fish is First Mate's Finger. Ragworm and Krill have a ~20.8% rate while Plump Worm has a ~18.3% bite rate.
On all baits Rhotano Dahlia is the second highest bite rate alternative when considering using Modest Lure, but is ~45-60% less common depending on the bait; it is not a viable alternative.
On Ragworm or Krill, First Mate's Finger is the highest bite rate or is near-equivalent to another fish: Rhotano Permit for Ragworm, Specterfish for Krill. On Plump Worm it is slightly lower bite rate than the highest bite rate fish: Rhotano Permit.

From current data, all three baits have a near-equivalent Spectral Starfish bite rate: 5~6%

The datasets are now sizable enough to be useful, small enough to consider the percentages usable to make some conclusions but not to be taken completely at face value. The Starfish quantity between them is x, x+1, x+2 so it would be silly to conclude one is better at present.

Ragworm and Krill have an equivalent Modest and Ambitious Lure favouring fish distribution, while Plump Worm's is the most extreme:

  • Ragworm is ~43% Modest, ~57% Ambitious
  • Krill is ~43% Modest, ~57% Ambitious
  • Plump Worm is ~35% Modest, ~65% Ambitious

A notable difference between the baits is also some of the bite times, shown in the tables below.

Even on Ragworm and Krill, which have identical Modest and Ambitious favouring fish distributions when rounded, the bite rates and times for each fish are not the same. Due to the bite time and bite rate differences between all three baits, the percentage of bites you may encounter while fishing for Spectral Starfish does not vary significantly.
Based on current data, in Fair Skies this results in:

  • ~78% of bites on Ragworm are before or overlap with Spectral Starfish (36% Modest, 42% Ambitious)
  • ~83% of bites on Krill are before or overlap with Spectral Starfish (36% Modest, 47% Ambitious [Pen% adjusted to remove the % of bites after Starfish max])
  • ~81% of bites on Plump Worm are before or overlap with Spectral Starfish (29% Modest, 52% Ambitious)

Frolicsome Fish (not included in the tables) also overlaps with Spectral Starfish only on Ragworm, and when the Intuition is active increases the Modest favouring percentage, but you should not have the Intuition while utilising this information so its existence is irrelevant.

As the bite rates on what gets removed with weather are not even across the baits, this means when hard focusing Spectral Starfish you should Slap First Mate's Finger, and in

  • Fair Skies: Modest Lure, use Plump Worm
  • Clouds/Fog: Modest Lure, use Krill
  • Rain: Modest Lure, use Plump Worm
  • Showers: Modest Lure while using Plump Worm is probably similar to using Chum while using Ragworm

All strategy is liable to change with expanded datasets, though Fair Skies is decently confident. Datasets for weathers other than Fair Skies are at decent for some baits individually but not great to analyse and compare.
Evaluating the Fair Skies data while factoring in what weather removes is not sufficient if trying to conduct a serious analysis for best practices during non-Fair Skies which is why those strategies are most liable to change. Given the composition of this hole and the existing data, however, if the best practices do end up being different I doubt existing recommendations will be significantly worse.